EUR/JPY Price Forecast: Strengthens above 184.50 with bullish tone despite intervention risks

The EUR/JPY cross holds positive ground around 184.85 during the early European session on Tuesday. A hawkish stance from the European Central Bank (ECB) underpins the Euro (EUR) against the Japanese Yen (JPY). The ECB will hold its June monetary policy meeting on Thursday. Markets have fully priced in a 25-basis-point (bps) rate hike after Eurozone inflation surged to 3.2%.

Markets are on high for foreign exchange intervention from Japanese authorities. This, in turn, might support the JPY and act as a headwind for the cross. Japanese authorities have issued strong verbal warnings, stating that the government is fully prepared to take decisive and appropriate action to protect the domestic currency.

Technical Analysis:

In the daily chart, EUR/JPY holds a constructive bullish bias as spot remains above the 100-day simple moving average (SMA) and the Bollinger band midline. Price also sits comfortably above the lower Bollinger band, suggesting the broader uptrend structure is still intact, while the Relative Strength Index (RSI) at 45.9 leans slightly soft but remains in neutral territory, hinting at consolidative rather than impulsive downside momentum.

On the downside, the initial support zone is formed by the 100-day SMA at 184.50, followed by the lower Bollinger band near 184.20, which should limit deeper pullbacks if the bullish structure is to persist. The first upside barrier emerges at the  the Bollinger band midline at 185.12, en route to the upper boundary of the Bollinger Band at 185.12. Any follow-through buying above this level could pave the way to the 186.00 psychological level. 

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)