Cardano’s ADA plunges to a four-year low before jumping 12%! What’s the real story for investors?

The Leios testnet in the spotlight

Despite ADA’s weak market performance, the Cardano community is laser focused on the upcoming Leios testnet. Approved in a community vote on May 25, the testnet is scheduled to launch on June 23. Cardano Foundation has projected that full integration into the Cardano mainnet is targeted between October and December 2026.

The Leios protocol stands out as a key update, aiming to significantly increase Cardano’s transaction throughput. According to shared estimates, monthly transaction capacity could soar from 800,000 to a staggering 27 million—a roughly 33-fold jump. Cardano, which operates using a proof of stake model, has long drawn attention for its technical roadmap amidst industry discussions about blockchain scalability.

Mini glossary: “Testnet” refers to a blockchain’s dedicated test environment for trying out updates before main network deployment. “Leios” is a Cardano initiative designed to boost transaction capacity and streamline network data flow as part of the project’s ongoing scaling efforts.

The Cardano Foundation expects full mainnet integration of the Leios update to be completed in the final quarter of 2026.

Dormant wallets suddenly spring to life

Blockchain analytics firm Santiment has spotted striking shifts in ADA wallet activity in recent days. Their data reveals that the Mean Dollar Invested Age—a metric tracking how long tokens remain untraded—had been climbing, but suddenly, significant movements were detected in addresses that had long been inactive.

The Age Consumed indicator has shown multiple pronounced spikes within spans of four to five days, including the sharpest surge observed since April. Santiment emphasizes that while such movements do not guarantee price reversals, similar wallet behavior often coincided with major turning points for ADA’s market in the past.

Santiment’s analytics underline that large, previously stagnant Cardano wallets are stirring again—a pattern that has historically aligned with key market inflection moments.

Cardano ecosystem metrics remain under pressure

Not all signals across the Cardano ecosystem are positive. According to DeFiLlama, Cardano’s total value locked in decentralized finance fell from 593.93 million ADA on June 4 to 552.01 million ADA by June 9—a net loss of 41.92 million ADA in just five days.

Within the same week, decentralized exchange volumes on Cardano slid dramatically, from $10.77 million on June 5 to just $2.43 million by June 9. Stablecoin circulation also dropped, declining from $54 million to $46 million. The suspension of activity by TapTools and JPG Store between May 27 and June 3 has further fueled concerns about ecosystem vibrancy.

Charles Hoskinson, Cardano’s founder, admitted in a recent podcast that the network has fallen behind in terms of market perception. Nonetheless, he maintains that Cardano successfully balances scalability, security, and decentralization. Technically, the four-hour relative strength index stood at 46 on June 9—a rebound from an oversold reading of 12, but still not a clear sign of renewed strength. Analysts highlight that if ADA can surpass the $0.174 resistance, a rounded bottom pattern could propel prices toward $0.195.