Bitcoin’s next rally may depend on Congress, O’Leary says

Kevin O’Leary says Bitcoin’s next major catalyst has not arrived yet, even after the asset moved through previous highs. 

The investor said large institutions remain cautious because digital assets still lack clear rules.

In a post on X, O’Leary said pension funds, sovereign wealth funds and large institutions are waiting for regulatory clarity before making larger allocations. He said crypto adoption may now depend more on legislation than speculation.

Institutions remain in a waiting phase for Bitcoin

O’Leary said many investors expected Bitcoin to move higher after breaking through new highs. However, he argued that the market still needs a policy trigger before the next wave of capital arrives.

“Large institutions, pension funds, and sovereign wealth funds are waiting for regulatory clarity before making meaningful allocations to Bitcoin and digital assets,” O’Leary wrote.

His view places regulation at the center of the next Bitcoin cycle. Large funds usually need clear custody, trading, tax and compliance rules before adding new asset classes to portfolios.

Without those rules, Bitcoin remains harder for some institutions to hold at scale. That limits the size of inflows from groups that manage long-term capital.

Legislation could drive the next adoption phase

O’Leary said the next phase of crypto adoption may be “driven less by speculation and more by legislation.” The comment came as U.S. lawmakers continue to debate market structure rules.

The CLARITY Act remains one of the main bills under review. The bill seeks to divide oversight of digital assets between the SEC and CFTC, while setting rules for exchanges, issuers and payment stablecoins.

As previously reported by crypto.news, the CLARITY Act cleared the Senate Banking Committee in May. However, later reports said the bill still faces timing pressure, bank lobbying and stablecoin-yield disputes before the midterms.

That policy delay matters for O’Leary’s argument. If large funds need legal certainty before entering, then a stalled bill may also slow institutional demand.

O’Leary looks beyond Bitcoin

O’Leary also pointed to a wider opportunity in enterprise blockchain. He said blockchain has promised to improve contracts, compliance, logistics and inventory management for 14 years.

Still, he said no single network has become the main business standard. In his view, that could change once regulation gives companies more confidence to use blockchain tools.

“When regulatory clarity arrives, one blockchain network could become the foundation for how businesses operate across every sector of the economy,” O’Leary wrote.

He said finding that network may become one of the largest investment opportunities of the decade. He did not name a specific blockchain in the post.

Bitcoin still faces market pressure

O’Leary’s comments arrive during a weak period for Bitcoin and the wider crypto market. Prices remain sensitive to macro pressure, ETF flows and investor risk appetite.

As previously reported by crypto.news, the June crypto selloff was tied to hawkish Federal Reserve expectations, US-Iran tensions, ETF outflows, Strategy’s rare BTC sale and excess leverage.

That backdrop shows why regulation alone may not move prices immediately. Bitcoin still needs stronger demand, calmer macro conditions and more stable fund flows.

Even so, O’Leary’s message adds to a wider market debate. For him, Bitcoin’s next leg may depend less on retail excitement and more on whether lawmakers give institutions a clear path to enter.