Capital Economics: Even with the restoration of safe passage, oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz will still lag behind
According to Golden Ten Data on June 15, Capital Economics Chief Economist Neil Shearing stated that by the end of the third quarter, energy supply is expected to recover to around 80% of pre-disruption levels. “Oil supply through the strait may take some time to return to pre-war levels. Even if ships can now pass safely, the positions of tankers are not optimal, oil production/refining facilities need to be running at full capacity, and there are still issues concerning the cost and availability of insurance for ships crossing the strait.” Natural gas supply may recover even more slowly, as Iran’s attack on Qatari facilities has led to about 17% of capacity being shut down.
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