A ceasefire is not a cure-all; the global economy will remain sluggish in the third quarter and recover to 3% only by 2027.

⑴ Capital Economics stated on Monday that although the temporary peace agreement between the US and Iran is fragile, it will reduce the risk of more serious macroeconomic and market scenarios in the coming months. Chief Economist Neil Shearing noted that it will take time for oil supplies to return to normal. ⑵ Oil tankers are not yet in position, and production and refining facilities have not resumed full operations, so the flow of oil through the Strait of Hormuz cannot immediately return to pre-war levels. ⑶ The agreement will not prevent a short-term rise in inflation, nor will it keep global economic growth in the third quarter from being hit. The global economy may experience a period of growth below trend in the third quarter, rather than fall into recession. ⑷ Capital Economics added that by the end of 2026 or 2027, GDP growth outside the Gulf states should return to the pre-war level of 3%.