Raised to 7.9%, Uzbekistan's growth hits a decade high, driven by investment-fueled momentum in the manufacturing and construction sectors.
- In its June macroeconomic forecast, the Eurasian Development Bank raised Uzbekistan's projected GDP growth rate for 2026 to 7.9%, up from 6.8% in its December 2025 forecast. The bank noted this would mark the country’s highest economic growth rate over the past decade, second only to the post-pandemic recovery in 2021.
- The bank expects growth rates in 2027 and 2028 to moderate to 6.9% and 6.5% respectively, with ongoing economic expansion driven by the industrial and construction sectors. Industry’s share of the economy is rising to 29.2%, manufacturing output increased 8.5% year-on-year in the first four months of the year, and construction surged 14.1% year-on-year, making it the fastest-growing among all major sectors.
- In terms of inflation, consumer prices rose 7.0% year-on-year in April 2026, reaching their lowest level in a decade. Annual inflation is expected to ease to 6.8%, and further to 5.7% and 5.2% in 2027 and 2028 respectively. However, the bank cautioned that rising global commodity prices could delay the decline in inflation, and elevated oil and gas prices may push up fertiliser and electricity costs.
- The Eurasian Development Bank anticipates monetary policy will begin to loosen in the second half of 2026, with the benchmark interest rate dropping to around 13.5% by year-end, and falling to 12% and 11% by the end of 2027 and 2028 respectively. Risks include increased imports damaging trade balance, and instability in fuel markets potentially driving up international logistics costs, thereby intensifying inflationary pressure and dampening investment activity.
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