UBS: US-Iran Agreement Reduces Fed Rate Hike Pressure, Next Move is Rate Cut in 2027

On June 15, Leslie Falconio, head of taxable fixed income strategy at UBS Global Wealth Management, stated that following the announcement of the US-Iran agreement, oil prices have fallen, leading to a strengthening of the US Treasury market and a reduction in the pressure on the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates this year. Falconio noted, 'Even before the ceasefire agreement was reached, oil prices had already begun to decline, and the yield on two-year US Treasuries was still rising because the market was pricing in nearly a 100% probability of a rate hike in December at that time.' She added, 'Now the situation is that oil prices are falling, and the market is gradually retracting those rate hike expectations. As a result, the yield on two-year US Treasuries has started to decline.' The newly appointed Fed Chair, Jerome Powell, will preside over his first rate decision this week. Against the backdrop of soaring crude oil prices reigniting inflationary pressures, voices within the FOMC supporting a rate hike this year have been increasing. Falconio anticipates that the FOMC will formally abandon its dovish stance at this week's meeting, making the policy outlook more hawkish. However, she still believes that the Fed's next move will be a rate cut, expected to occur in 2027.