A temporary agreement between the US and Iran may trigger a rebound in food imports in the Persian Gulf

(1) If the temporary agreement reached between the US and Iran brings an end to months-long conflict and leads to the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Gulf countries are expected to begin a wave of food imports. In recent months, the region was forced to rely on longer, less efficient alternative shipping routes. (2) The Gulf region is one of the world's most dependent markets on food imports, with about 90% of food consumption coming from abroad. Iran itself is one of the world’s largest soybean meal buyers and is a significant importer of Brazilian corn. The region’s main food import hubs—such as UAE’s Jebel Ali Port, Saudi Arabia’s Dammam Port, and Iran’s Imam Khomeini Port—are all located inside the strait, making the reopening crucial for supply chains. (3) Currently, shipping disruptions are severe: according to Kpler’s chief analyst, food transport requires specialized equipment and ultimately must return to Gulf ports. At present, only about 3 dry bulk ships enter and exit per day, whereas normal levels should exceed 20 ships. Data shows that in May this year, total food imports to the region fell to 942,000 tons, a year-on-year drop of over 50%. If the agreement takes effect, import volumes are expected to rebound significantly.