Waller May Refuse to Provide Fed Dot Plot Expectations, Breaking 14-Year Tradition

On June 17, CNBC reported that the Federal Reserve will release its latest dot plot on Wednesday, showing officials' expectations for interest rate trends. However, most Wall Street Fed watchers expect that new Fed Chair Waller may not participate, either because he feels unprepared or simply because he dislikes the dot plot. Waller has previously expressed opposition to the dot plot and other forward guidance methods, arguing that these approaches limit the Fed's decision-making capabilities. If Waller refuses to provide dot plot expectations, it would contradict nearly 14 years of practice since the financial crisis and could alienate him from other Fed officials who support this communication method. However, for Waller, who has committed to fundamentally reforming the institution's operations, this may be an effective first step. "In my view, he likely does not want to submit interest rate forecasts," said former Fed monetary policy chief and current Yale professor Bill English. "There may be others on the committee who also dislike the dot plot, and they might be willing to do the same." (The image shows the dot plot released by the Fed in March this year.)