Bitunix Analyst: The US-Iran Agreement and Crude Oil Price Drop Are Only the Prelude, Risk Assets Are Facing the Ultimate Test of the "Real High Interest Rate Era"

BlockBeats News, June 17 — The core narrative of global markets is gradually shifting from “the end of the Middle East war” to “asset repricing in the post-war era.” Details of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding continue to be revealed, including lifting the ban on oil exports, unfreezing assets, and the planning of private investment funds reaching as much as $300 billion. The market has already started trading the possibility of Iran’s return to the global energy and capital markets. However, the actual pace of restoring operations in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain. European allies are conservative regarding demining and escorting, and shipping companies generally believe a full return to normal passage may still take several weeks or even longer, indicating that although geopolitical risks have declined, they have not completely disappeared.

The energy market has already started reflecting these changes. As the US may allow Iran to immediately resume oil exports, about 68 million barrels of Iranian crude oil stranded at sea are waiting to re-enter the market. Combined with the possibility of Russian oil sanctions expiring, the structure of global energy supply is being reshaped. In the short term, Iran’s increased production helps lower oil prices and shipping costs, but if Russian exports become restricted again, the energy market may see new supply and demand tensions in the future. This is also why gold demand has not noticeably cooled as peace prospects rise. A World Gold Council survey shows that more and more central banks are continuing to increase their gold reserves, essentially reflecting that central banks’ long-term hedging against geopolitical and global debt risks has not changed.

Meanwhile, a clear divergence has emerged in global central bank policies. The Bank of Japan raised interest rates to 1%, the highest in 31 years, but also announced it would stop further tapering of bond purchases next year; the Reserve Bank of Australia, after consecutive rate hikes, paused for the first time. This suggests central banks have entered a new phase of “keeping rates high for longer, but avoiding rapid shrinkage of liquidity.” The real market focus is on Kevin Warsh, the new Federal Reserve Chair, and his first FOMC meeting tonight. Recently, whether in Citadel Securities, academic surveys, or market pricing, expectations have shifted from rate cuts to a renewed risk of rate hikes. In other words, for the past two years, markets have traded on the rate cut timetable; now, they are starting to price in the possibility of rising funding costs again.

It is noteworthy that even as expectations for high rates increase, risk assets continue to attract capital. SpaceX not only completed the $60 billion acquisition of Anysphere, but for a time even surpassed Microsoft and Amazon to become the fourth-largest enterprise by market value in the world. AI, space technology, and large-cap tech capital expenditures continue to accelerate. However, this also raises concerns about imbalances between valuations and liquidity. As credit markets maintain ultra-low spreads and tech companies are able to finance at extremely low costs, the restraining force of high rates on risk assets has not yet truly appeared.

For the crypto market, the biggest variable is no longer the Middle East, but whether Warsh will reduce forward policy guidance and redefine future financial conditions. If the Federal Reserve maintains high rates but allows credit to continue expanding, market liquidity may still support risk asset performance; but if supply is managed by shrinking both the balance sheet and credit, tech stocks, AI concepts, and the crypto market may all face repricing pressure. Thus, although on the surface markets are trading on a “peace dividend,” in reality, they are waiting for the Fed to decide the direction of the next round of global liquidity, and performance will continue to reflect true market judgments about funding costs and liquidity outlook.