Bank of New York Mellon: FOMC statement likely to reflect two-way risks, dot plot may remove rate cuts this year

(1) John Velis, Head of Americas Strategy at BNY Mellon, stated that the upcoming FOMC statement is expected to indicate a clear two-way risk for interest rates in the short term, which aligns with the tone of the three relatively hawkish dissenting votes at the end-April meeting. (2) This meeting will release a new Summary of Economic Projections (SEP, also known as the dot plot). (3) BNY Mellon expects that the median forecast for the end of 2026 will exclude the rate cut expectation that has persisted throughout several previous cycles.