Julius Baer: After the temporary US-Iran agreement, energy supplies should recover quickly and the oil market may move towards oversupply.

(1) Norbert Rucker of Julius Baer stated that after the United States and Iran reached a temporary peace agreement, energy supplies should quickly return to normal. The sharp drop in oil prices below $80 "seems to stem from financial markets, as well as the rapid shift of fast money on futures positions by hedge funds, algorithmic traders, and others." (2) Nevertheless, limited infrastructure damage and continued energy production during the conflict should support a swift recovery in supply. Trade passing through the Strait of Hormuz has gradually picked up, and alternative export routes have also been fully utilized. (3) Julius Baer noted that the energy market appears to be heading into an oversupply situation, holds a cautious view on oil, and maintains a neutral outlook on natural gas.