French soft wheat export expectations remain stable, ending stocks raised to 3.5 million tons

⑴ The French agricultural office FranceAgriMer released its latest forecast: for the 2025/26 season, French soft wheat exports outside the EU are projected to be 7.25 million tons, unchanged from the May forecast. ⑵ During the same period, soft wheat exports within the EU are now estimated at 7.83 million tons, higher than last month's forecast of 7.75 million tons. ⑶ The year-end stock estimate for soft wheat has been raised from 3.28 million tons in May to 3.5 million tons, increasing stock accumulation pressure. ⑷ The year-end stock estimate for barley is 1.37 million tons, lower than last month's forecast of 1.46 million tons. ⑸ The year-end stock estimate for corn has been raised from 2.37 million tons to 2.5 million tons, reflecting a more relaxed supply situation for this crop. ⑹ Looking at the overall adjustments, France's new season grain market shows slightly improved domestic export demand but generally rising stocks; future attention should be paid to actual weather conditions and changes in Black Sea supply impacting the final balance sheet.