Exchange DeepThink: Warsh’s debut, crypto market faces key policy trajectory test

BlockBeats news, June 17—DeepThink columnist and Research analyst Chloe from a certain exchange pointed out that this week, the core variable of the crypto market has shifted from a simple price rebound to a repricing of the Federal Reserve’s policy path. The upcoming FOMC interest rate decision and dot plot may become an important watershed for risk assets in the short term. The market generally expects the Federal Reserve to maintain the interest rate range at 3.50% to 3.75%, but what truly affects the market is not whether the Fed raises rates this time, but whether the dot plot shows no rate cuts at all throughout 2026, and that some officials may even be inclined to further rate hikes.

This means the macro environment is shifting from "waiting for rate cuts" to a pricing framework of "high rates lasting longer, or even renewed hikes," which is not friendly to the crypto market. The rebound of some altcoins and high-beta assets over the past few months was essentially based on the market’s early bets on improved liquidity. Once the dot plot is revised upward and any hint of future rate cuts is removed from the post-meeting statement, the market will have to reassess valuations for risk assets, especially crypto assets that lack cash flow support and rely mainly on narratives and leveraged capital flows.

The current contradiction is that the US economy has not shown clear weakness: job growth remains robust, and higher energy prices following the Iran conflict have increased inflation pressure. The debate within the Federal Reserve is no longer about "when to cut rates" but rather "is the current rate sufficient to suppress inflation," which will directly limit market risk appetite. BTC, as the core liquidity asset in the crypto market, may still have some short-term downside resilience, but its upside will be constrained by actual rates and US dollar liquidity. ETH and major altcoins are more reliant on the return of risk appetite; if US Treasury yields rise or the dollar strengthens, capital may continue to exit high-volatility assets.

The first press conference after Warsh’s appointment is also crucial. If he emphasizes not providing forward guidance and downplays the significance of the dot plot’s commitments, the market may experience a brief respite; if he acknowledges the risk of entrenched inflation and remains open to further tightening, the crypto market might witness a new wave of deleveraging. From a market observation perspective, if the dot plot is clearly hawkish, the crypto market will likely decline first and then fluctuate; if Warsh’s stance is dovish, there may be a mild rebound after the event, but its sustainability will still depend on whether inflation data genuinely falls.