Options market prices in a low probability of SpaceX reaching the highest global market capitalization

According to CNBC, SpaceX has listed on Nasdaq with a valuation of $2.6 trillion. Its current market value is still behind Alphabet and Apple, which are both at $4.4 trillion. To become the world's second largest company by market capitalization, SpaceX's stock price would need to rise by about 70% to $340. Options market pricing indicates that SpaceX has approximately a 38% probability of becoming the world's largest company by June 2028, and about 41% by the end of 2028.