Analysis: Net positions of long-term BTC holders hit new all-time high, bearish market bottom may be approaching

ChainCatcher news, on-chain analyst Murphy stated that long-term holder (LTH) net holdings have reached another all-time high. As of June 17, LTH net holdings stood at 14.96 million BTC, an increase of 20,000 compared to the peak on March 27. This is also the second time since BTC entered a bear market that LTH net holdings have set a new record. More and more BTC is no longer willing to participate in short-term speculation and turnover; chips held by LTH now account for 75% of the total circulating supply.

According to Murphy, historically, the bottom of each bear market has usually appeared after LTH net holdings begin to rise—first comes a “recovery in holdings,” then a “bottom is formed.” In the previous cycle, LTH net holdings hit a record high three times, each followed by strong distribution, corresponding to the periods when the Federal Reserve signaled rate hike expectations, the Luna crash, and the FTX collapse. In the current cycle, this is the second record high. Murphy believes the key is not how many record highs are made, but whether the distribution scale by LTH shows an obvious downward trend. If the current distribution is lower than the previous one, it indicates that selling pressure is gradually drying up, suggesting the real bottom of the bear market has either already formed or is not far off.