USD/JPY Price Forecast: Consolidating above 161.00 amid growing intervention risks

The Japanese Yen (JPY) remains offered against the US Dollar (USD) on Friday, and the USD/JPY pair stands comfortably around 161.30, its highest level since 2024, way beyond the level that triggered an alleged intervention on April 30.

Markets have remained oblivious to the Bank of Japan’s (BoJ) decision to hike rates to 31-year highs earlier this week. Speculative traders have kept selling the Japanese currency, lured by rising bets that the US Federal Reserve will be forced to hike interest rates in the second half of the year.

On Thursday, Japan’s Chief Cabinet Secretary, Minoru Kihara, reiterated that the authorities are ready to respond appropriately to currency moves “as needed at any time”. Tokyo tends to intervene in moments of thin liquidity, and, in this case, the Juneteenth bank holiday in the US provides a good opportunity.

Technical Analysis: The 40-year high, at 161.95, is at hand

USD/JPY trades at 161.26, holding a constructive bullish tone with no sign of a trend shift on the horizon. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) in 4-hour charts remains at 66.46, leaning toward overbought territory without yet flashing an exhaustion signal. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) is modestly positive at 0.09, hinting that upside momentum is still in play.

On the topside, Thursday's high at 161.79 and the 40-year high at 161.95 are the main resistance levels. Further up, bulls might target the 127.2% Fibonacci extension of the June 11-18 rally, at 162.38.

To the downside, the session low, at the 161.00 area, is holding bears for now, closing the path to Thursday's low, at 160.45, and the 160.00 psychological level.

(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)