ANZ expects Australia’s core inflation rate to rise to 3.5% year-on-year in May, posing upside risks to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision

汇通财经2026/06/19 13:16

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Australia will release its May consumer price data on Wednesday. Economists expect the overall CPI to fall by 0.1% month-on-month, but attention is focused on the extent to which rising oil prices are being transmitted to underlying inflation. ANZ Bank expects trimmed mean inflation (excluding volatile items) to rise by 0.3% month-on-month. Corporate pass-through of higher costs is projected to push core annual inflation up to 3.5%, with risks skewed to the upside.
The Reserve Bank of Australia has raised interest rates three times this year to curb underlying inflation, but paused this month to assess whether further action is necessary. The May employment data, to be released on Thursday, is another key variable. The seasonally adjusted unemployment rate rose from 3.3% to 3.5% in April, but the central bank believes part of the increase merely reflects longer job search times. Containing prices remains a central focus.
The Bank of Thailand is expected to keep interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, with May inflation within target range. ANZ believes that even if the US and Iran reach a peace agreement, oil prices may remain high, and inflation may exceed the upper limit, likely requiring action later this year. Singapore's overall CPI for May is expected to rebound, mainly reflecting rising food prices and lagged transmission of fuel costs, with core inflation rising in tandem, highlighting robust demand resilience.

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ANZ expects Australia’s core inflation rate to rise to 3.5% year-on-year in May, posing upside risks to the Reserve Bank of Australia’s policy decision

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