Amid declining international oil prices, trading positions betting on crude oil oversupply are once again drawing market attention.
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After the significant retreat in crude oil futures prices following the conclusion of a peace agreement between the US and Iran, a batch of previously nearly forgotten over-the-counter option positions—betting on crude oil oversupply—has once again caught the attention of investors.Before the US took action against Iran, some traders had anticipated that crude oil oversupply would push the prices of near-month contracts below those of far-month contracts, resulting in what the market calls a "forward premium" structure. However, after the outbreak of conflict between the US and Iran, the market broadly worried about potential shortages in crude oil supply, and the price of near-month contracts surged sharply. In late April this year, the price of WTI crude oil August contracts exceeded September contracts by more than $5 per barrel, while the September contracts were priced $4 higher than the October contracts. This wave of price increases at the time rendered over 20 thousand cash-settled put option positions (equivalent to 20 million barrels of oil per month) nearly worthless.Now, as the price discrepancy between contracts of different months has narrowed again to less than $1 per barrel, these options have regained their reference value. With oil prices falling back to pre-conflict levels, not only have bearish spread positions returned to the market spotlight, but the overall sentiment regarding directional positions in the crude oil market is also turning increasingly pessimistic.According to the latest weekly statistics released by the US Commodity Futures Trading Commission, the net long positions in international benchmark Brent crude oil held by hedge funds and other large speculators have dropped to the lowest level in six months. Since the end of March, the reduction in positions has approached nearly three quarters.
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