Indium Poised to Become the Next Heavily Regulated Minor Metal: How a Near-Zero Supply Elasticity Resource Could Choke the AI Optoelectronics Industry

The price center of indium has systematically shifted from the pre-2020 level of 1,000 CNY/kg to the range of 4,000–6,000 CNY/kg. The fundamental driving force behind this current upward trend is the historic collision between the "asymmetry in resource endowment" (China holds 75% of the world’s reserves, 69% of global production, and is tightening export controls) and the "supercharged demand" (simultaneous growth driven by three engines: AI optical modules, HJT photovoltaics, and ITO displays). The period from 2026 to 2028 will be a key window for indium to complete its status upgrade from an "industrial flavor enhancer" to a "strategic resource."

Is indium a minor metal variety worth long-term tracking and attention?