Goldman Sachs: Southeast Asian Food Prices Face Upside Risks, Threatened by Oil Price Shocks and El Niño

(1) Goldman Sachs economists point out that Southeast Asian food prices face upside risks in the coming months, mainly because the oil shock caused by the Middle East conflict has already impacted fuel-sensitive CPI items. (2) In addition, rising fertilizer prices will increase agricultural input costs, while the potential El Niño event by the end of 2026 usually leads to higher global temperatures, which could trigger a new round of food supply shocks. (3) Goldman Sachs estimates that for every 10% local oil price increase, Southeast Asian food CPI will rise by about 0.3 percentage points after 12 months; however, the specific extent of El Niño's impact is still not accurately predictable at this stage.