Serenity: Photonics and CW lasers may become the next key investment themes for AI infrastructure

BlockBeats news, on June 23, "White Hair" Serenity posted on social media:

I believe the photonics theme, combined with the CW laser bottleneck, is absolutely top-tier. It's as if the market has short-term amnesia, forgetting how LITE went from $3 billion to over $65 billion from 2024 till now. Because of NVDA causing the EML bottleneck, it forced an architectural shift.

We are indeed seeing the same scenario now — AMD and other cloud service providers are snapping up the remaining share through long-term contracts for large CW lasers and optical components. Goldman Sachs Research expects the optics TAM to be about 9 to 10 times higher by 2028, reaching $154 billion; while CPO TAM has grown from nearly zero to $91 billion in just two and a half years.

Don't just disappear because of a month of trading volatility. AAOI's market capitalization is about $13 billion, AAOI's market capitalization is about $13 billion, SIVE about $3 billion, and other CW laser players look very valuable strategically. Then, there may be some new small trends in the next 1-2 years, such as microLED or quantum dots — we’ll see the same thing repeat. I think Sumitomo's prediction regarding CW laser share and silicon photonics becoming a mainstream/dominant architecture should be correct. Personally, I am just focused on that bottleneck, as you’ve seen with SOI, SOI, TSEM, SIVE, and other stocks.