80.1 euros, EU carbon auction holds firm at critical level as market shows resilience in absorbing supply

⑴ On Tuesday, the European Union completed the auction of 2,817,500 spot carbon allowances on the EEX exchange, with the average transaction price settled at 80.1 euros/ton. This marks a moderate rebound from last week’s German auction price of 79.1 euros, indicating a solid demand foundation in the primary market. ⑵ The coverage ratio for this auction was 1.44—lower than the 1.89 seen in the June 10 Polish auction and the 2.19 from last week’s German auction—but it remains in positive territory, suggesting that, despite global commodity volatility triggered by Trump’s tariff rhetoric, rational bidding still prevails among participants in the European carbon market. ⑶ Observing the short-term supply pace, German and Polish auctions have successively released allotments exceeding 1 million units, and the secondary market has not experienced significant selling pressure. The price center remains effectively supported in the 75 to 80 euros range, suggesting a rebalancing between compliance-driven demand and speculative positions. ⑷ With the summer peak in energy consumption approaching and expectations of continued moderate expansion in EU industrial activity, changes in the coverage ratio of upcoming auctions will serve as a key indicator of marginal demand strength. Whether the 80-euro level can shift from resistance to support will depend on macroeconomic data's guidance for emissions trends.