Are gold bulls likely to rebound again?

Huitong Network, June 24 — The first short-term support is the intraday low at 4050.35, which is the primary defense point for bulls at this stage. If this level is breached effectively, the lower supports will be the prior low at 4024 and the significant psychological threshold at $4000. The 4000 level serves as a strong psychological defense line; if lost, further downside could open up completely. In the event of short-term oversold corrections leading to a weak rebound, the upside remains limited, with strong resistance concentrated around the 4150 zone.

On Wednesday (June 24), spot gold opened higher but came under persistent pressure to move lower, trending down throughout the day and breaking below the 4060 level, plunging over 1.25% intraday; the price traded entirely below the intraday moving average line, with the RSI indicator retreating into the bearish range indicating the market is dominated by bears.

Gold is on track for a fourth consecutive monthly decline, marking its longest losing streak since September 2022. This month’s drop has again exceeded 10%, potentially making it the metal’s second-worst monthly performance this century. Meanwhile, although price volatility remains high, monthly volatility continues to decline, which may indicate stabilizing market conditions.

From a seasonal perspective, June is typically a month of declines for gold: both the average and median returns for the month are negative, and the profitability rate is relatively low. Since 2000, gold prices have fallen in 60% of Junes, with an average decline of -3.5% during those months. Given that gold prices have already dropped more than 10% this month but remain above key support, there is potential to recover some losses before month-end.



It’s also noteworthy that speculative shorting in gold on the CME futures market has dropped significantly. Net short positions among managed funds have fallen to the lowest level since 2022, while large speculators’ short positions are at their lowest since January 2025. Although net long positions remain low by historical standards, they are gradually increasing, thus expanding the net long positions for both categories of investors.

In recent months, open interest has also declined, indicating that the drop in gold prices was not mainly due to large-scale new shorting. In fact, the trend appears to be a gradual unwinding of both long and short positions. However, open interest has risen in recent weeks, suggesting that as long as gold prices hold above $4000, more participants may start buying gold.



Moreover, the risk reversal indicator remains above recent lows and is higher than those lows. This can be interpreted as a positive divergence between options traders and spot gold prices. Overall, current demand for put options is much weaker than it was a few weeks ago, which again suggests that gold may not break below the $4000 threshold.



(Spot Gold 4-hour Chart Source: YiHuitong)

The 4-hour chart shows gold is in a standard bearish downtrend, having continuously broken through a series of Fibonacci support levels since its pullback from the 4382 high. All medium- and long-term moving averages are pressing down, with the price remaining below the mid-Bollinger Band and close to the lower Bollinger Band; MACD death cross continues, bearish pressure is increasing, and RSI falls to 28—entering oversold territory with no bottom divergence, signaling bearish momentum is not exhausted and the bear-dominated trend is clear.

The first short-term support is the intraday low at 4050.35, the primary defense for bulls at this stage. If this level is breached, supports come in at the previous low of 4024 and the critical psychological level at $4000. The 4000 level is an extremely strong psychological defense line; a loss here would completely open up downside potential.

Should an oversold correction lead to a short-term, weak rebound, the upside potential remains limited, with strong resistance centered around 4150: this region corresponds not only to the 0.382 Fibonacci retracement at 4161 but also aligns with the mid-Bollinger Band at 4142, creating dual resistance from moving averages and Fibonacci levels, effectively marking the upper extreme of this rebound. Minor rebounds first encounter resistance at 4109 (0.236 Fibonacci level), and unless prices stably reclaim levels above the mid-Bollinger Band, short-term bearish pressure will remain.

At 18:31 (UTC+8), spot gold was at $4061.66 per ounce, down 1.18%.