Grayscale: There are two paths for the bitcoin bear market to evolve, but the long-term outlook for crypto assets remains positive.

BlockBeats news, on June 29, according to Grayscale’s latest official research report, since its peak of around $125,000 in October 2025, Bitcoin has retraced by more than 50%, falling below $60,000. The report believes that the current decline is still a cyclical correction within Bitcoin’s long-term uptrend, rather than a reversal of the long-term trend.

Grayscale pointed out that Bitcoin has come under pressure recently due to multiple factors, including the Federal Reserve’s policy expectations turning hawkish, market uncertainty over the legislative prospects of the CLARITY Act, Strategy’s leveraged balance sheet pressure, and investor concerns about potential quantum computing security risks. Among these, following U.S. President Trump’s nomination of the hawkish Kevin Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair, the market’s expectation has shifted from rate cuts to a potential rate hike within the year, weakening Bitcoin’s investment logic as an anti-currency devaluation asset.

The outlook for Bitcoin presents two main scenarios: in the baseline scenario, if the CLARITY Act passes the Senate smoothly, Strategy improves its balance sheet, and the Federal Reserve holds off on raising rates, Bitcoin may be close to the cycle bottom. In the pessimistic scenario, if the act fails to pass within the year, digital asset finance companies continue to deleverage, and stubborn inflation forces the Federal Reserve to raise rates, Bitcoin’s price may drop further.

However, since this bull market’s gains have been relatively moderate and institutional capital demand is more robust, this retracement is not expected to repeat the historical cycle’s peak drawdown of around 80%. Grayscale also stated it remains optimistic about the long-term growth prospects for public blockchains and digital assets over the next decade.