After two ships were attacked, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz remains subdued, and the US-Iran ceasefire faces a test

(1) After two ships were attacked, the market once again raised doubts about shipowners' ability and willingness to transit the Strait of Hormuz, with commercial shipping volumes remaining at a low level. Over the weekend, only a few ships completed public passages—two very large crude carriers entered the Persian Gulf empty, while one French container ship and two fully loaded oil tankers departed from the Persian Gulf and surrounding waters. (2) Although traffic over the weekend declined, it remained higher than during most periods of the war. Since the U.S. and Iran announced earlier this month that they had reached a temporary arrangement to reopen the Strait, more shipowners have been willing to transit, a trend that has strengthened. (3) Global investors, shipowners, and insurance institutions are closely watching this critical chokepoint, viewing it as a key indicator of whether the peace agreement can be sustained and whether the severely disrupted supply chain can return to normal. The U.S. and Iran carried out tit-for-tat strikes last Saturday after the attack on the ships, testing the fragile ceasefire, but both sides have agreed to pause attacks before resuming negotiations this week.