After three consecutive months of steady performance, supported by benign unemployment claims and robust ADP data, Bank of America Securities expects nonfarm payrolls to increase by a strong 110,000 in June.
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However, they also see downside risks. The surge in the leisure and hospitality sector in May may have been driven by the timing of the World Cup or Memorial Day. If it is the latter, there could be a pullback in June. "A strong report could bring the market closer to our forecast of three rate hikes in 2026," they added.
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