The US-Iran situation fluctuates, gold price falls below the $4,000 mark; TD Securities: This correction may be a buying opportunity

　　On June 30, the situation between the US and Iran fluctuated as Iran failed to attend the scheduled meeting in Doha today. Oil prices surged intraday, while gold prices retreated under pressure; both spot and futures gold prices broke below the psychological $4,000 level. As of 10:30 (UTC+8), Harvest Gold ETF (518850) fell 2.43%, and Harvest Gold Stock ETF (159562) dropped 3.25%.

　　According to the news, Iran stated that the current focus is on implementing the memorandum of understanding and that it will not negotiate with the US in the near future. The heightened tensions between the US and Iran pushed oil prices higher and sparked inflation concerns, strengthening market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike and leading to a decline in gold and silver prices.

　　TD Securities believes that gold faces further short-term downside risk, potentially falling below $3,900. However, this correction will not end gold's long-term bull market but rather provide significant opportunities for long-term investors to position themselves.

　　Funeng Futures analysis suggests that Federal Reserve Chair Walsh stated high inflation is mainly supported by energy, tariffs, and sustained housing issues—these are not short-term disturbances. Keeping prices stable remains the primary objective, and the interest rate path has not been fixed. In the long-term, AI could improve productivity and may alleviate inflation after 2027, which would be a core premise for future rate cuts. Walsh’s comments imply that even if US-Iran tensions ease, short-term inflation may remain sticky. Currently, the market expects the Federal Reserve to raise rates by 25 basis points in September, which will suppress precious metals and metal prices. Looking ahead, the Fed’s monetary policy framework is becoming more data-dependent, so attention should be paid to changes in inflation and employment data. If inflation data cools or employment data weakens, expectations for a Fed rate hike may be shaken, giving gold prices a chance to stabilize and rebound. In the short term, gold prices are expected to remain weak and volatile, favoring a bearish strategy. Watch for support around 860 for gold this week, as well as the release of US non-farm payrolls data.

Editor: Zhu Henan