International crude oil records the largest quarterly decline since 2020 in Q2, as increased supply drags prices downward

⑴ On Tuesday, international crude oil prices traded near $70.7 per barrel. Crude oil saw a cumulative decline of about 30% in the second quarter, marking its worst quarterly performance since 2020. ⑵ The core cause of this sharp drop in oil prices is a significant increase in crude supply: progress in US-Iran negotiations enabled the export of Persian Gulf crude that had been held up, and crude shipments through the Strait of Hormuz have rebounded significantly. The US has eased some sanctions on Iran, allowing more crude oil to flow into the market, further exacerbating supply surplus. ⑶ Delegations from both the US and Iran have been sent to Doha to hold ceasefire talks in an attempt to end the four-month-long conflict, but Iran has refused to engage in direct dialogue with the US. ⑷ Iran continues to insist on control over shipping management in the Strait of Hormuz. Iran has proposed working with Oman to jointly manage this strategic waterway, but stated that if negotiations fail, it will issue its own plan to manage shipping in the strait unilaterally.