Bitcoin currently faces a supply surplus of $4.4 billion, with weak institutional demand dragging down its rebound prospects.

BlockBeats news, June 30: Despite Bitcoin stabilizing recently around $60,000, the outlook for a rebound remains dim. According to Glassnode data, Bitcoin ETF has sold off 71,600 BTC (worth over $4 billion) this month, setting a record for the largest single-month redemption in history. Meanwhile, enterprises and digital asset custodians added only 7,500 BTC, and with the addition of daily new mining supply, the net gap reaches around 77,000 BTC (about $4.4 billion), resulting in a significant "supply surplus".

Against this backdrop, the largest Bitcoin digital asset company Strategy (MSTR) announced a Bitcoin liquidation plan on Monday, authorizing the sale of up to $1.25 billion worth of Bitcoin, mainly to build a $2.55 billion dollar reserve to cover preferred stock dividends and interest payments. Analysts believe that if fund inflows fail to turn positive and institutional demand does not recover, any price rebound may be short-lived. Currently, the only factor supporting Bitcoin is the predominantly long US dollar positions in the forex market.

Elsewhere, UK regulators have reduced the capital buffer requirement for stablecoin issuers from 2% to 1%. The 52-week correlation between Bitcoin and the USD/JPY exchange rate has fallen to -0.90, its lowest since the end of 2022, which challenges the "arbitrage trading" theory. International oil prices are experiencing the biggest single-quarter drop since 2020, with the market focused on the progress of the US-Iran talks.