(Kitco NewsWire) - Spot gold prices are firmer and spot silver prices are higher ahead of the North American market open Tuesday, as silver led a modest precious-metals rebound while the dollar and Treasury yields remained firm enough to cap gold’s upside. At the time of writing, spot gold was trading near $4,033.20 an ounce, up 0.44%, while spot silver was trading near $58.960, up 1.34% on the session.
Gold’s early range was $3,944.00 to $4,038.10, keeping the metal above the $4,000 level but below the resistance zone that would signal a cleaner technical recovery. Silver’s early range was wider, at $56.520 to $59.710, with the market recovering from Monday’s pressure but still below the $60.00 area.
The post-Fed reaction remains the main positioning constraint. The FOMC held the target range at 3.50% to 3.75% on June 17 in a 12-0 vote, while the statement cited elevated uncertainty tied partly to the Middle East conflict and inflation pressure partly tied to energy supply shocks. The market has since treated gold less like a pure haven and more like a rate-sensitive asset: DXY was firmer near 101.37 at 8:19 a.m. ET and the 10-year Treasury yield was near 4.394% at 8:30 a.m. ET. That keeps rallies dependent on short-covering and positioning relief unless yields or the dollar break lower.
The Strait of Hormuz situation is best characterized as recovering flow with unstable risk. Shipments through the strait resumed faster than many analysts expected after the June 17 U.S.-Iran deal, with oil volumes leaving the waterway at 13.4 million barrels on June 24 and 11.7 million barrels on June 25. Traffic then pulled back after fresh hostilities and a commercial tanker incident, while Iran described the situation as “sensitive and complex.” The current market impact is split: WTI and Brent were firmer in early trade, but still below the panic levels seen earlier in June, while gold carried only a limited insurance bid because the same oil-risk channel also feeds inflation and Fed-hike risk.
Traders are watching May JOLTS at 10:00 a.m. ET, Wednesday’s ADP employment report at 8:15 a.m. ET and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s appearance at 9:30 a.m. ET, and Thursday’s June employment report at 8:30 a.m. ET. The shortened U.S. holiday week raises the risk that payrolls, yields and dollar positioning land with thinner liquidity than usual.
The key outside markets see Nymex WTI crude oil prices firmer and trading around $71.28 a barrel, while Brent crude was near $74.53. The U.S. dollar index is firmer. The yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note is trading near the 4.4% area.
Technically, spot gold bulls' next upside price objective is to push prices back above the $4,091.00 to $4,201.00 resistance zone, with a sustained move targeting $4,324.00 and then $4,597.00. Bears' next near-term downside price objective is a break below $3,959.00, with deeper downside targets at $3,944.00 and then $3,900.00. First resistance is seen at $4,091.00 and then at $4,201.00. First support is seen at $3,959.00 and then at $3,944.00.
Spot silver bulls' next upside price objective is to drive prices back above the $61.54 to $64.25 area, with a move above that zone targeting $69.85 and then $72.00. The next downside price objective for the bears is a break below $57.72, with deeper downside targets at $55.58 and then $55.00. First resistance is seen at $61.54 and then at $64.25. Next support is seen at $57.72 and then at $55.58.
