Forex Today: US Dollar neutral as Fed rate hike bets stay alive

Here is what you need to know for Wednesday, July 1:

The US Dollar Index (DXY) traded on a neutral stance near the 101.20 level on Tuesday as investors digested mixed United States (US) data and hawkish Federal Reserve (Fed) commentary. Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack said inflation remains too high and that further rate hikes may be needed if price pressure persists.

EUR/USD fell to the 1.1420 level as investors assessed softer German inflation and stronger retail sales data. Germany’s preliminary headline inflation eased to 2.4% in June from 2.7% in May, reducing immediate pressure on the European Central Bank (ECB), while German Retail Sales rose unexpectedly by 1.1% MoM in May after falling -0.4% a month earlier.

GBP/USD was flat near 1.3255, failing to find direction after Bank of England (BoE) Governor Andrew Bailey said policymakers are in no rush to change interest rates. Bailey noted that United Kingdom (UK) inflation could still rise toward 3.2% later this year but added that tighter financial conditions give the BoE time to evaluate the pass-through of higher energy prices before deciding whether another rate hike is needed.

USD/JPY crossed a four-decade high near the 162.60 mark, with the Japanese Yen (JPY) remaining under pressure despite ongoing concerns about possible intervention from Japanese authorities.

AUD/USD traded higher near 0.6920 as the Australian Dollar (AUD) found support from the latest Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Meeting Minutes and stronger Chinese activity data. China’s NBS Manufacturing PMI rose to 50.3 in June, while the Non-Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.2, supporting sentiment around Australia’s China-linked economy.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) Oil remained under pressure near the $70.10 per barrel as investors focused on easing supply risks and hopes that US-Iran talks could help stabilize the energy market. Reuters reported that Brent and WTI were on track for their steepest monthly and quarterly losses since 2020 as improved tanker movement and ceasefire hopes reduced fears of a prolonged supply shock.

Gold stayed muted near the $4,020 price region as a firmer Greenback and renewed Fed rate-hike expectations limited demand for the non-yielding metal.