Analyst: Probability of Reserve Bank of Australia rate hike drops to only 15%, Australian dollar bulls collectively “surrender”

Golden Ten Data reported on July 1 that foreign exchange analyst Sagar Dua stated that during the European session on Wednesday, the Australian dollar weakened against major currencies. Due to the surge in US Treasury yields, risk-off sentiment in the market intensified, putting significant selling pressure on the Australian dollar. Waning expectations for another rate hike by the Reserve Bank of Australia also weighed on the currency. Market pricing shows a 15% probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will raise the cash rate from 4.35% at its next meeting in August, with a 50% chance that the current rate hike cycle has ended. As oil prices recover to near pre-Middle East war levels and global inflation expectations stabilize, the prospect of a hawkish stance from the Reserve Bank of Australia has also cooled.