Excess savings shortage pushes up developed countries' interest rates, storage capacity expansion drives resonance in equipment and materials chain, trade barriers and domestic demand pressure reshape state-owned enterprises' overseas expansion --- 0701 Macro Dehydration
- Since the financial crisis, the scale of global excess savings has continued to decline to a relatively low level, with China contributing over 60% of this amount. Factors such as reduced global trade imbalances, population aging, rising government debt, the AI investment boom, and the trend of de-dollarization are collectively squeezing the supply of savings.
- The world's leading storage giants are at the starting point of a new round of capital expenditure, driving the upstream supply chain for semiconductor equipment, core materials, and wafer foundries. The US and Japanese stock markets have already reflected the logic of advanced process capacity expansion—Applied Materials and ASML are leading the gains, while Japanese equipment stocks are catching up. Nvidia's demand and pressure from the nine major industry associations are accelerating capacity expansion, and Korean equipment imports in Q2 have given a clear signal of expansion.
- The internationalization path of Chinese enterprises is evolving from single-product exports to a parallel advance of goods, capital, and production capacity. The current trend of going global features deepening models, industry upgrades, segmented types, and destination adjustments. The opportunities of globalization lie in using high gross margins to fund R&D, moving up the value chain, RMB internationalization, and transformation of export structure, with the risks of manufacturing hollowing-out being controllable.
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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