India: Nowcast points to slower expansion – DBS

DBS' Senior Economist Radhika Rao with data support from Daisy Sharma, highlights that India’s real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew 7.8% year-on-year in 1Q26, slightly below the revised 8.0% in 3QFY26. The Nowcast model points to softer momentum ahead, with growth seen easing in 2Q26 and full-year 2026 GDP projected below 2025 levels.

Growth moderation signaled

"This week’s featured insight is on GDP Nowcast, which is best viewed as an estimate of real GDP growth based on available economic data and forecasts for the current quarter."

"Today we focus on India’s real GDP for 1Q26 (4QFY26), released earlier this month."

"The economy grew 7.8% yoy from a revised 8.0% in 3QFY26 (Oct-Dec25)."

"As per the Nowcast model, growth is expected to moderate to 6.9% in 2Q26 (1QFY27), driven by softer industrial activity, freight traffic, sales of farm tractors and commercial vehicles."

"We expect 2026 growth to average 6.5% (CY) from 7.8% in 2025."

(This article was created with the help of an Artificial Intelligence tool and reviewed by an editor.)