Everbright Futures Gold Commentary 0701: Gold’s Decline Slows, Focus on US Employment Data This Week
On July 1, London spot precious metals initially fell and then rebounded overnight, while SHFE gold rose by 0.80%. Non-farm payroll data is set to be released this week, with the market forecasting an increase of 110,000 jobs in June and an unemployment rate holding steady at 4.3%. The performance of the labor market may influence the Federal Reserve’s future policy direction. Should employment data prove robust, expectations for further Fed rate hikes will strengthen, which would increase the downward pressure on gold.
On the macro front, the U.S. JOLTS job openings in May rose slightly to 7.594 million, marginally higher than April’s 7.585 million and above the expected 7.3 million, highlighting the resilience of the labor market. The market is also awaiting the U.S. non-farm payroll data for June, due this Friday, for further guidance. On the geopolitical side, the Middle East situation continues to evolve, and while the U.S. and Iran signed a memorandum of understanding, tensions remain high. Progress on navigation issues in the Strait of Hormuz has been slow, and Israel is further expanding its military operations in the Palestinian territories while maintaining high-pressure deterrence against Iran. Currently, the pricing logic in the precious metals market is still dominated by the direction of the Federal Reserve’s monetary policy. Whether the Fed will raise rates further still requires more data for confirmation, such as non-farm payroll data and subsequent inflation figures. Until then, the market remains under hawkish policy expectations, which continues to exert downward pressure on gold. However, last night the Nasdaq index achieved three consecutive gains, leading to increased market risk appetite and, under the influence of liquidity, the decline in gold prices has also slowed — the sustainability of this trend requires further observation.
Written by: Li Qi
Professional Qualification: F3046227
Investment Advisory Qualification: Z0016145
Editor: Zhu Henan
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
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