US employment data cools significantly, silver rebounds strongly, awaiting stress test

　　

　　

(XAG/USD) continued its upward movement during the Asian trading session, with prices climbing to around , marking the fourth consecutive trading day of gains and demonstrating a steady rebound structure overall. The core driver in the current precious metals

　　The key trigger for this round of gains comes from the significant cooling of US employment data. The latest nonfarm payrolls report shows that only

, new jobs were added in the US in June, well below market expectations of 110,000, indicating a clear slowdown in labor market expansion. Although the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell to , slightly improved from the previous 4.3%, the overall weakness in the job market is more pronounced, reinforcing the market's judgment that US economic momentum is slowing.

　　Following the data release, the market quickly adjusted its expectations for the Federal Reserve's policy path. According to interest rate futures market pricing, the probability of a rate hike in September has dropped to about

, significantly lower than before the data release, reflecting weakening confidence in further tightening policies. The decline in real interest rate expectations has directly improved the investment appeal of non-yielding assets like silver.

　　From a macro perspective, silver is also benefiting from a temporary relief in inflation pressures. Persistently falling energy prices are a key variable, as crude oil has weakened due to easing Middle East geopolitical risks and resumed shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, indirectly suppressing overall inflation expectations. Against the backdrop of both inflation and interest rates falling, silver's financial and inflation-hedging attributes are both supported.

　　

　　On the geopolitical front, although indirect negotiations between the US and Iran have failed to make a breakthrough, market concerns about systemic supply disruptions have visibly diminished, causing the safe-haven logic for precious metals to return more to macroeconomic factors rather than single geopolitical drivers.

　　

　　On the 4-hour chart, silver maintains a clear bullish arrangement, but the RSI has entered a relatively high zone and short-term momentum has slowed somewhat, with the MACD red bars beginning to contract, indicating a slowdown in the pace of the rise. If price consolidates above $62 with increased trading volume, the trend may continue; otherwise, failure to hold $62 could lead to a high-level consolidation or correction phase. Overall, the short-term trend remains bullish, but the risk of increased volatility is rising accordingly.

　　Editor’s summary:

　　The current rally in silver has mainly been driven by significantly weaker US employment data, which has raised market expectations for a policy shift by the Federal Reserve. At the same time, easing inflation pressures and falling energy prices have together reinforced an accommodative environment. Silver continues its rebound supported by both lower real interest rates and a weaker USD, but has now entered a more volatile high-level zone in the short term. The next moves will depend on further confirmation from upcoming US economic data and future signals from the Federal Reserve, with a strong tug of war existing between trend continuation and technical pullback.

Editor: Zhu Henan