Ethereum climbs above $1,650 with a 5% surge! What signals should investors be watching?

Short liquidations drive the rally

A wave of forced liquidations in the derivatives market played a crucial role in Ethereum’s price rebound. Over the last 24 hours, approximately $92 million worth of short positions betting against Ethereum were closed out. Across the broader crypto asset market, total liquidations exceeded $475 million during the same period. This highlights that the rally was fueled not only by spot buying, but also by the rapid shut-down of leveraged bearish bets.

Ethereum’s futures trading volume surged by nearly 29 percent, reaching $43.4 billion. Open interest climbed above $22.8 billion, and options volume jumped about 57 percent to $915 million. The rise in both open interest and price indicates sustained influx of new capital into the Ethereum market.

Funding rates have remained in positive territory, reflecting ongoing investor appetite for long positions in the short term. This suggests traders are willing to pay a premium for maintaining bullish bets.

An eye-catching technical signal on the monthly chart

Analyst Ali Martinez noted that as July began, Ethereum’s monthly chart flashed a buy signal from the TD Sequential indicator. The same technical signal appeared in September 2022 and March 2025, each preceding major rallies of 235 percent and 182 percent respectively. The current signal has therefore drawn increased attention across the market.

Mini glossary: The TD Sequential is a technical indicator developed by Tom DeMark, aiming to spot exhaustion or trend reversal in price movements. The MVRV compares an asset’s market capitalization with its realized value to determine whether it is historically overpriced or undervalued.

Ali Martinez emphasized that the monthly TD Sequential buy signal seen at the start of July has only occurred twice before in Ethereum’s history, each time followed by a powerful rally.

Martinez also observed that Ethereum’s bounce from $1,549 coincided with the negative 1.0 sigma band of the MVRV extreme deviation model, a technical framework widely used to track historically suppressed price zones.

ETF outflows limit institutional appetite

On the institutional side, capital flow into spot Ethereum ETFs has taken a cautious turn. Since June 17, spot Ethereum ETFs have logged a cumulative net outflow of $358.3 million. This development suggests that despite recent price gains, institutional investors have yet to trigger a significant accumulation phase.

Ted Pillows pointed out that even though Ethereum has recovered above $1,600, a solid confirmation of bullish momentum would require reclaiming the $1,700 to $1,750 range. Otherwise, the price could revisit yearly lows.

Watch these key levels: $1,700 and $1,550

In the near term, the key resistance lies at $1,700. If broken, the $1,800 to $1,850 region becomes the next target, which coincides with Ethereum’s 50-day moving average. On the downside, a drop below $1,600 could mean a retest of the significant $1,550 support zone.

Major investor moves are also under close watch in the market. Notably, “Machi Big Brother”, a well-known crypto whale, increased his Ethereum holdings after reducing exposure in some NFT assets. Such moves strengthen the expectation that some large players are eyeing current prices as an entry opportunity.