Aluminium: Gulf supply disruptions seen temporary – ING
ING analysts Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey say LME Aluminium fell towards $3,000/t as markets unwound the geopolitical risk premium from earlier Middle East tensions. An update from Emirates Global Aluminium showed 7% of pots at Al Taweelah restarted, reinforcing expectations that Gulf supply disruptions are temporary and that lost production will gradually return, easing availability concerns.
EGA restart eases supply fears
"LME aluminium came under renewed pressure yesterday, with the three-month price falling towards $3,000/t as the market continued to unwind the geopolitical risk premium built up during the Middle East conflict."
"Sentiment was weighed down by an update from Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA). It said that around 7% of production pots at its Al Taweelah smelter have been restarted, highlighting steady progress in restoring output following the missile and drone attacks earlier this year."
"The update reinforced expectations that supply disruptions in the Gulf will prove temporary. Concerns over lost Middle Eastern production and shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz helped lift prices sharply earlier this year. But recovering output and easing regional tensions have steadily improved the supply outlook."
"While a significant portion of Al Taweelah's capacity remains offline and a full recovery will still take time, the latest update reinforces expectations that lost supply will gradually return to the market. This is easing concerns over aluminium availability."
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