Despite an official ban on U.S. users, American traders have placed $571 million in political bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket over the past year, according to on-chain analytics firm Allium. The data, reported by CoinDesk, reveals that U.S.-linked wallets accounted for the largest share of political betting volume on the platform, surpassing Hong Kong’s $422 million.
How U.S. Users Are Accessing Polymarket
Polymarket blocks users based on IP addresses, but the restriction is easily bypassed using a virtual private network (VPN) combined with a cryptocurrency wallet. This loophole has allowed American traders to participate actively, even as the platform officially restricts access from the United States due to regulatory concerns. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) has previously taken action against unregistered prediction markets, but enforcement has not deterred user activity.
Geopolitical Bets Dominate U.S. Trading
Allium’s analysis shows that 46% of political bets from U.S. users focused on geopolitical issues, significantly higher than the platform’s overall average of 36%. Bets related to a potential conflict with Iran were particularly prominent, reflecting heightened interest in international affairs among American traders. This trend suggests that U.S. users are not just betting on domestic elections but are also using Polymarket to speculate on global events with real-world implications.
Why This Matters for Regulators and Traders
The data highlights a persistent gap between platform restrictions and actual user behavior. While Polymarket has taken steps to comply with U.S. law, the technical barriers remain low, and enforcement against individual users is rare. For regulators, this raises questions about the effectiveness of IP-based blocks and the need for clearer rules around decentralized prediction markets. For traders, the activity underscores the demand for alternative platforms where political and geopolitical speculation is possible, even in the face of legal uncertainty.
Conclusion
The $571 million in political bets from U.S. users on Polymarket illustrates the difficulty of enforcing geographic restrictions in the decentralized crypto ecosystem. With geopolitical events driving a significant portion of this volume, the platform remains a key venue for political speculation despite regulatory challenges. As enforcement agencies continue to monitor the space, the gap between policy and practice may narrow, but for now, American traders continue to participate actively.
FAQs
Q1: Is Polymarket legal to use in the United States?
Polymarket is officially banned for U.S. users, and the platform blocks access based on IP addresses. However, using a VPN to bypass this restriction is common, though it may violate the platform’s terms of service and could carry legal risks under U.S. commodities laws.
Q2: What types of political bets are most popular among U.S. users?
According to Allium, 46% of U.S. political bets focus on geopolitical issues, such as potential conflicts or international events, compared to the platform’s overall average of 36%. Bets on a war with Iran have been particularly active.
Q3: How does Polymarket compare to other prediction markets?
Polymarket is one of the largest decentralized prediction markets by volume, but it competes with platforms like Kalshi (which is regulated in the U.S.) and Augur. Polymarket’s advantage is its crypto-native infrastructure, which allows for global access, but this also exposes it to regulatory scrutiny.
