JPMorgan warns: Bullish trend driven by risk aversion and central bank gold buying comes to an end! Significantly lowers gold price forecast for the year
J.P. Morgan's latest precious metals report clearly states that the previous bullish phase driven by risk-aversion sentiment and active central bank gold purchases has come to an end. As central bank gold buying, Asian physical demand, and retail buying momentum have all cooled off, gold ETF capital flows—which are sensitive to interest rates—have once again become the main driver of gold prices movements. The negative correlation between gold and US real interest rates has strongly reemerged after years of dormancy. This means the rise and fall of gold prices are once again closely tied to the Federal Reserve's next policy moves.
Although the short-term outlook has turned more cautious, the bank has not abandoned its long-term bullish stance: it expects the aforementioned structural forces to regain traction in 2027, driving gold prices higher quarter by quarter. It forecasts $4,600 for the first quarter, $4,700 for the second quarter, $4,800 for the third quarter, and $5,000 for the fourth quarter, with an annual average expected to reach $4,775. However, this is premised on a more substantial dovish shift from the Federal Reserve.
Editor: Zhang Hengxing
Disclaimer: The content of this article solely reflects the author's opinion and does not represent the platform in any capacity. This article is not intended to serve as a reference for making investment decisions.
You may also like
As AI controversies escalate, hedge funds buy tech stocks at the fastest pace in 15 months
Hedge funds have recorded net purchases of US TMT stocks on 10 out of the past 11 trading days, rebuilding tech long positions at the fastest pace in 15 months. However, an AI policy storm has struck at the "worst possible time"—calls by AI giants to slow down development have been rejected, and regulatory uncertainty has directly hit Asian tech stocks such as Softbank. As the tech sector's bullish run coincides with Super Central Bank Week, the sector now faces a severe test.
Apple Pre-sale Tracker: iPhone 18 Pro Series Shows Weak Overseas Demand Signals, Duo Review Positive but Hardware Lags Behind
According to a survey by Jefferies, after the launch of the iPhone 18 Pro, delivery wait times in the four major markets—the US, UK, Germany, and Japan—have shortened by 5 to 11 days compared to last year, with no wait time in the US. Given stable production capacity, this is a clear sign of weak demand. Although the China and Hong Kong markets have performed better against the trend, there are still suspicions of speculative stockpiling. The new foldable Duo has been praised for its software experience, but its $2,000 price tag comes with a 254-gram body and dual-camera setup, leaving its hardware lagging significantly behind Android competitors. Jefferies maintains an "underperform" rating, with a target price implying a 21% downside from the current level.
SUI holds $0.71 support as analysts cite key buy signal, eyes on possible recovery
UBS Health Benefit Survey: Elevance Health (ELV.US) Leads, U.S. Employers Prepare for Rising Medical Costs
In the annual survey by UBS for employee benefits management institutions, Elevance Health (ELV.US) emerged as the highest-rated US health insurance company.
Crypto prices
More
