Everbright Futures 0707 Gold Review: Gold Prices Stabilize After Falling, But Rebound Momentum Remains Weak

On July 6, COMEX gold fluctuated and declined, although the drop was relatively limited, closing at $4,176.3/ounce with a gain of 0.26%. The domestic SHFE gold night session slightly rebounded, closing at 909.96 yuan/gram, down 0.15%.

On the macro front, the US ISM Services PMI for June fell from 54.5 to 54.0, slightly lower than the market expectation of 54.2. The index has consistently remained above the 50 expansion-contraction threshold, indicating that the services sector is still expanding, albeit at a slower pace. However, the employment index saw its largest rise since the start of 2024, returning to expansion, while the prices paid index dropped to 67.7, the lowest in four months, suggesting that the speed of corporate cost increases has eased. Within the Federal Reserve, divisions over the communication of monetary policy are emerging, with Governor Waller stating that forward guidance remains a valuable policy tool—contrasting with Governor Wosch’s stance.

On the geopolitical front, Trump stated that resolving the Russia-Ukraine conflict will be "much faster than people think," and Putin hopes to end the conflict. Israel announced an "indefinite" military presence in the three major security zones of Lebanon, Gaza Strip, and Syria. As the Federal Reserve’s hawkish tone softens, the precious metals market’s pricing logic is shifting from a “tightening narrative” to a stage of “data verification and policy adjustment.” Precious metals are beginning to show signs of stabilizing after recent declines. However, it should be noted: first, the Federal Reserve has not started cutting rates and inflation risks remain elevated; second, Wosch also emphasized continuing the balance sheet reduction, which will have a more lasting effect on tightening liquidity. Based on the recent performance of gold, the bottom range remains relatively strong, but the rebound is still weak, indicating clear differences between the bullish and bearish sides, so excessive optimism is not advisable.

Source: Wind, Everbright Futures Research Institute

Author: Shi Yueming

Professional Qualification: F03097365

Trading Advisory Qualification: Z0017563

Editor: Zhu Henan