Samsung Forecast a 19-Fold Profit Jump Today: So Why is Stock Down 6%?

Samsung Electronics forecast a 19-fold jump in second-quarter operating profit to 89.4 trillion won ($58.4 billion) today, July 7. The estimate beat analyst forecasts and marked Samsungs third straight record quarter. However, Shares still fell over 6% in early trading, extending a pullback from the stocks fivefold rally over the past year. AI Demand Fuels Record Profit Samsungs guidance topped the 87.3 trillion won LSEG SmartEstimate. It also beat the 84.4 trillion won FnGuide consensus, according to Reuters. Samsung expects revenue to climb 129% year over year to 171 trillion won. However, that figure actually fell short of analyst forecasts of 173.3 trillion won, according to Korea JoongAng Daily. Citi Research found DRAM prices climbing 44% quarter over quarter, while NAND flash prices rose 53% in the same stretch. Analysts tied the increase to AI spending pushing beyond high-bandwidth memory into conventional chips for phones, PCs and servers. Booming HBM production has increasingly squeezed the supply of standard memory chips, keeping prices elevated. Customers have also started seeking longer-term supply contracts, a shift analysts say could keep prices high well into next year. Samsung stock prices fell sharply in early trading after the impressive forecast. Image Source: Trading View Additionally, Samsung agreed to a wage deal with workers in May. The deal ties semiconductor worker bonuses to operating profit, and Samsung set aside funds for those bonuses this quarter. Analysts estimate operating profit would have only topped 100 trillion won without those bonus provisions. Why Are Shares Falling Anyway? Samsung stock climbed fivefold over the past year, but Tuesdays drop looks like profit-taking after that run, as some investors sold into the earnings beat rather than chase the stock higher. Analysts expect widening losses at Samsungs foundry and logic chip units, since bonus costs spread across the whole semiconductor division. The pullback also fits a broader pattern across chip stocks, where sentiment has split sharply by company. Memory glut fears have hit some suppliers in recent weeks, even as Microns AI-driven surge pushed others higher over the same stretch. That divide has fed recent warnings about an AI bubble, with some investors growing wary of how far the rally can run. Samsung will release a full divisional breakdown on July 30. It also pledged 2,100 trillion won for domestic investment through 2040, though it will adjust that spending to market conditions. Some analysts argue the memory boom looks increasingly structural, since new fabrication plants take years to build and limit supply growth. A slowdown in AI data center spending remains the clearest risk to that outlook.