Strategist: Gold Shows Bottoming Signals, Divergence Emerges Between Gold and Silver

　　The international gold price continues to be blocked by the key $4,200 resistance level, pulling back sharply from the high at the beginning of the year. However, Saxo Bank’s Head of Commodity Strategy Ole Hansen has put forward a new judgment: the most severe phase of the months-long concentrated selling has ended, and the gold market has shifted from passive liquidation to a period of bottom consolidation.

　　Macro expectations turning dovish, Federal Reserve policy outlook reshaping the pricing logic of precious metals

　　Gold price performance remains anchored to expectations of US monetary policy. Previously, the market largely bet on Fed rate hikes this year. However, June’s weak jobs data—with only 57,000 new positions added—significantly eroded expectations of aggressive tightening.

　　Fed Chair Warsh publicly reiterated commitment to price stability while admitting that in recent weeks, inflation risks have clearly moderated, further weakening the necessity for rate hikes.

　　According to Hansen, forward inflation expectations have fallen sharply and energy prices are also declining, leaving no rational logic for continued rate hikes. Once the market reaches consensus, long-accumulated dollar long positions will unwind en masse, causing the US dollar to weaken and short-term US Treasury yields to fall—benefiting non-yielding assets like gold from the opportunity cost perspective. However, before the Fed’s policy path becomes fully clear, gold’s recovery faces many obstacles, with the current price still down 26% from the January high.

　　Gold enters a bottom-building stage, multiple technical resistances restrict rebound height

　　Support near $4,000 has temporarily held, but when gold rebounded to the $4,200 level on Monday it faced renewed selling pressure, with many investors using the bounce to reduce positions. This is a typical repair feature after a deep correction and implies the market needs ample time to build a solid bottom.

　　From a technical point of view, the 200-day moving average near $4,485 is the first major resistance, while the 38.2% retracement of the January to June decline is at $4,574. Only if gold effectively breaks through these two critical levels will the technical structure fully turn bullish. At the current stage, this recovery should only be defined as bottom-building. Fund flows are showing clear changes, as market operations shift from panic exits to selectively buying on dips. The outlook now depends entirely on whether the broader macro environment continues to signal dovishness.

　　Silver stabilizes and rebounds in tandem, with supply-demand advantages and high volatility characteristics presenting a dual attribute

　　Hansen is also optimistic about the near-term outlook for silver. On Monday, silver’s rally stalled at $63.27 per ounce, but in the previous sharp drop, strong support at the $55 level held and the price recovered above $60, sending a positive recovery signal.

　　The sharp declines in recent months have significantly damaged silver’s technical structure and market confidence, and the recovery period required will be longer than for gold.

　　Summary

　　Considering macro policy, capital behavior, and technical patterns, concentrated selling pressure on precious metals has largely been cleared, with gold officially entering a bottom-building phase while silver simultaneously starts a stabilization and recovery window. Weaker US inflation and employment data are gradually dispelling the bearish impact of Fed rate hikes. However, gold faces multiple layers of technical resistance that are unlikely to be quickly breached in the short term; silver, while enjoying long-term value driven by industrial supply-demand, also carries the risk of severe volatility impacting trades.

　　Subsequent statements from the Fed, US Treasury yields, and dollar trends will directly determine how long the bottoming period and the rebound space for gold and silver last.

Editor: Zhu Hennan