Silver Price Forecast: XAG/USD corrects further to near $61 as oil prices attract bids

Silver price (XAG/USD) is down 1.35% to near $61.00 during the Asian trading session on Tuesday. The white metal extends its correction as oil prices see some buying interest, following headlines that Iran fired at least two missiles at commercial ships transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint to almost one-fifth of global energy supply.

Iran’s attack on commercial ships has renewed fears of energy supply disruption, whose impact on global inflation has already been witnessed by market participants in the past few months amid the war between the United States (US)-Israel and Iran.

The Silver price underperformed during the Middle East war, as the increase in inflationary pressures due to rising energy prices prompted fears of interest rate hikes by global central banks.

Higher interest rates bode poorly for non-yielding assets, such as Silver.

Going forward, the major trigger for the Silver price will be the release of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) minutes of the June policy meeting on Wednesday. Investors will pay close attention to FOMC minutes to get fresh cues regarding the Federal Reserve’s (Fed) monetary policy outlook.

In the June policy meeting, the Fed decided to leave interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.50%-3.75% and signaled that the central bank will refrain from delivering forward-looking remarks on policy rates at the current policy juncture.

Silver technical analysis

XAG/USD trades lower at around $61.50, maintaining a bearish near-term bias as spot holds beneath the 20-day exponential moving average (EMA) at $63.35. The downside tone is reinforced by the Relative Strength Index (RSI) hovering near 41, which suggests persistent but not extreme selling pressure as rebounds continue to be capped by the nearby EMA barrier.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 20-day EMA at $63.35, and a sustained break above this level would be needed to ease the current bearish pressure and open the way for a more constructive recovery phase. Looking down, the psychological level of $60.00 will be the key support zone; below that, the Silver price could revisit the seven-month low of $55.63.