British Pound: Strong momentum eyeing 1.3410–1.3445 against US Dollar – UOB

United Overseas Bank’s (UOB) Quek Ser Leang highlights a sharp GBP/USD advance to 1.3397 and a firm close at 1.3391. Intraday, Leang sees scope for further gains toward 1.3410, though 1.3445 may stay out of reach. On a 1–3 week horizon, a break above 1.3410 could open 1.3445, while only a fall below 1.3300 would negate the positive Pound bias.

Pound rally faces layered resistance

"24-HOUR VIEW: GBP rose to 1.3380 last Friday and then pulled back. When it was at 1.3345 yesterday, we highlighted the following: “While there is scope for GBP to pull back further, any decline is likely to be contained within a 1.3320/1.3375 range. In other words, GBP is unlikely to break clearly below 1.3320.” The subsequent price movements did not unfold as expected. GBP dipped to 1.3329 before staging a sharp advance to 1.3397. GBP closed on a firm note at 1.3391 (+0.29%). Strong momentum suggests further GBP strength toward 1.3410. A break above this major resistance is not ruled out, but based on the prevailing momentum, the next resistance at 1.3445 is likely out of reach. To sustain the momentum, GBP must hold above 1.3350, with minor support at 1.3370"

"1-3 WEEKS VIEW: We turned positive on GBP last Tuesday (30 Jun, spot at 1.3255), indicating that “while GBP could rebound further, it is currently unclear whether any advance can reach 1.3355.” After GBP broke above 1.3355, we highlighted on Friday (03 Jul, spot at 1.3345) that “the advance is overbought, but it could rise further and test 1.3410.” Yesterday, GBP rose to a high of 1.3397. A break above 1.3410 will not be surprising, and it could lead to a move to 1.3445. Overall, only a breach of 1.3300 (‘strong support’ previously at 1.3280) would indicate that GBP is not rising further."