Oil: Gulf supply recovery challenges oversupply narrative – Commerzbank

Commerzbank’s Carsten Fritsch highlights a rapid recovery in Gulf oil production and exports following the US–Iran agreement, with Brent moving into contango and Saudi Arabia slashing its OSP for Asian buyers. Despite sharply higher observed flows, Fritsch argues that mine clearance, restricted tanker traffic and replenishment needs mean the Oil market is unlikely to face a genuine oversupply in the short term.

Gulf output rebounds but risks linger

"Price signals also suggest that oil supplies have risen more sharply than the official data indicate. This is because the front end of the Brent forward curve is in contango. Initially, only the first two futures contracts were affected."

"Last week, however, the contango structure extended to the first four contracts. Another indication could be Saudi Arabia’s sharp cut in the official selling prices (OSP) for August. OPEC’s largest producer is offering Asian buyers a discount of USD 1.5 per barrel on Arab Light compared with the Oman/Dubai benchmark."

"We are therefore sceptical that there will be an oversupply in the short term, as the forward curve currently prices in. Furthermore, the necessary replenishment of stocks is likely to absorb a considerable portion of the oversupply expected next year. The required volume is likely to be around 450 million barrels."

"Over a six-month period, this represents an additional boost to demand of around 2.5 million barrels per day. Author: Carsten Fritsch"

"According to Bloomberg, since the agreement was signed nearly three weeks ago, the total has been almost 90 million barrels, or 4.7 million barrels per day. Yesterday, 13.8 million barrels were recorded – the highest volume of supplies since the end of February."