Polish Zloty: Neutral MPC guidance points to underperformance – Commerzbank

Tatha Ghose at Commerzbank expects Poland’s NBP to leave rates at 3.75%, with forwards already reflecting this. With inflation momentum near zero and energy-driven disinflation back, earlier hike bets have been unwound and some analysts now discuss potential easing from Q4 or March 2027. Commerzbank sees this shift eroding PLN’s carry and supporting underperformance versus CZK.

Rate-hike narrative replaced by easing talk

"Headline CPI slowed to 2.5%y/y in June, weaker than consensus; more importantly, the month-on-month price change turned negative and, after seasonal-adjustment and smoothing, worked out to near-zero. In other words, the recent oil shock did not generate a lasting impulse; disinflationary forces in food and energy have re-asserted themselves."

"As we commented earlier, FRA contracts had been pricing in possible hikes later in 2026 only a month ago – these bets have now been pared. Given the drop in energy prices, in our view, rate cut bets could return for discussion by Q4, with some commentators already floating March 2027 as a realistic timing for easing to start."

"Poland’s National Bank (NBP) will announce its July monetary policy decision today: the analyst consensus is unanimous that the base rate will stay unchanged at 3.75%. This outcome is already fully reflected in forwards. The more interesting question is what language the MPC will use around future moves, now that recent inflation data have comprehensively stripped away the rate-hike narrative."

"This shift removes one of the few remaining supportive factors for the zloty exchange rate. A positive real interest rate cushion will persist, but it is no longer expected to widen via hikes – and if markets were to lean towards renewed easing, the carry premium will shrink further."

"At the same time, the Czech National Bank (CNB) retains a more credible hawkish bias. We therefore expect today’s “on hold” decision and neutral, data-dependent guidance to reinforce the prospect of PLN underperforming the Czech koruna in coming months."