Gold retreats below $4,100 after US President Trump says Iran ceasefire is "over"

Gold (XAU/USD) sees a sharp move lower on Wednesday after US President Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire deal with Iran was “over” and said that dealing with Tehran is “a waste of time” while speaking at the NATO Summit in Ankara, Turkey.

At the time of writing, XAU/USD is trading around $4,055, retracing most of the gains recorded in the previous week.

The US President’s remarks came after renewed fighting between the United States and Iran overnight, following attacks on commercial vessels near the Strait of Hormuz.

The latest escalation represents the most significant breach of the interim US-Iran agreement since it took effect on June 17, lifting the US Dollar (USD) and Crude Oil prices while dampening demand for the yellow metal.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude Oil is trading around $73.50 per barrel, up more than 7% so far this week.

The rebound in Oil prices rekindled inflation concerns, with the CME FedWatch Tool showing the probability of a September Federal Reserve (Fed) interest rate hike rising to 68% from 58% a day earlier.

Higher borrowing costs tend to weigh on Gold as investors favor interest-bearing assets. US Treasury yields remained elevated, with the benchmark 10-year yield holding around 4.57% on Wednesday, close to its highest level since late May.

The June Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting minutes, due later in the American session at 18:00 GMT, will be closely watched for hints about the Fed's next move.

For now, Gold's price action remains driven by interest rate expectations, overshadowing its traditional role as an inflation hedge and safe-haven asset.

The precious metal is trading nearly 28% below its record high of around $5,600 reached in January and remains vulnerable to further losses amid an unfavorable macro backdrop.

Even so, the longer-term outlook remains underpinned by structural demand from central banks and institutional investors, which could help limit deeper declines.

Technical analysis: XAU/USD slides toward $4,000 support

On the 4-hour chart, XAU/USD retains a bearish near-term tone as price holds below the 100-period Simple Moving Average (SMA) at $4,128.

The yellow metal is retreating from recent highs and remains capped by a dense overhead structure, while momentum indicators reinforce the softer bias: the Relative Strength Index (14) has slipped toward 38, and the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) has turned negative with a declining histogram, hinting at persistent downside pressure.

On the topside, immediate resistance is located at the 100-period SMA near $4,128, followed by the horizontal barrier at $4,200 and the 200-period SMA at $4,260, before a stronger cap emerges at $4,400.

On the downside, initial support is seen at the horizontal level of $4,000, where a break would likely open the door to a deeper corrective slide, while holding above this floor would keep XAU/USD in a consolidative bearish phase beneath the mentioned moving averages.