EUR/GBP Price Forecast: Languishes below 0.8550 with bullish attempts subdued

The Euro (EUR) keeps treading water right above one-year lows against the British Pound (GBP) on Thursday. The EUR/GBP is trading flat in the area of 0.8530 at the time of writing, weighed by rising tensions between the US and Iran and the rebound in oil prices.

In the Eurozone, German Trade Balance data beat expectations with a EUR 19.1 billion surplus in May, from the 14.5 billion surplus seen in April, as exports grew against expectations. The data, however, has failed to provide any significant support to the Euro.

Meanwhile, the US has launched a new round of attacks in Iran, which targeted US bases in Gulf countries in retaliation. US President Donald Trump said on Wednesday that the ceasefire was over, and Crude prices have bounced up nearly10% with Brent Oil hitting the $80 level on Wednesday, after bottoming near $70.00 last week.

Technical Analysis: EUR/GBP bears have lost momentum

EUR/GBP shows a bearish near-term tone, although sellers seem to have lost momentum. The Relative Strength Index (14), now near 28, highlights a bullish divergence, while the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator stabilizes around the zero line, hinting at consolidation rather than a decisive bullish reversal.

Bulls, however, must break above the previous yearly low, at 0.8533 (Jul 7 low), and the top of the descending wedge pattern from mid-June highs, now around 0.8555, to confirm a bullish correction.

On the downside, below the mentioned Wednesday's low at 0.8519, the confluence of the wedge bottom and late June 2025 lows, just above 0.8500, is likely to test bulls. Further down, there is no clear support until the early June 2025 lows, in the area of 0.84100.8863.